The Road to the Kentucky Derby is about to ramp up in a significant way, starting with this long holiday weekend. The schedule features the final two 10-point prep races before the stakes climb to 50 points for the winners, but also on tap are a couple of non-point events that are must-see viewing for Derby followers.
One of them is Monday's Grade 2 seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. The field is led by 2-year-old champion Nyquist, making his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Oct. 31. With 30 points so far, the colt can likely afford starting in a non-points race to begin his season, but trainer Doug O'Neill believes returning to competition is “mandatory.”
Saturday's G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs also offers no prep points, but it does feature a couple of Todd Pletcher's potential Derby contenders in Gettysburg and Destin, in addition to Rafting, a well-regarded Tapit colt making his sophomore debut for Graham Motion.
Full fields of 3-year-olds will be competing for points in Saturday's El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields and in Monday's G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.
For the older set, the weekend slate includes the G2 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park, the G2 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream, and the G3 Endeavour Stakes at Tampa, where the now 5-year-old Tepin makes her debut after a championship season that culminated with victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
Team Paulick got the best of last weekend's bankroll competition as Chelsea Hackbarth produced a return of $189, most of it coming from a win bet on Mshawish in the Donn Handicap.
You're guaranteed a return when you use the promo code PAULICKR and sign up for an Xpressbet wagering account. You'll receive up to $125 back from Xpressbet the day after you wager your first $100.
Let's see where the money's going this weekend. Best of luck with your bets!
Xpressbet Handicapper: Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com
Royal Delta Stakes, Grade 2, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 Miles
#5 SANDIVA is going to be a chic bet in this race, especially considering her owner and trainer struck gold in last weekend's Donn Handicap with a ‘turf horse.' That's where the similarities between she and Mshawish end, though. Mshawish had run well on the dirt before. SANDIVA hasn't. Mshawish had an influx of dirt influences in his pedigree. SANDVIA's doesn't scream dirt to me. She may take to the dirt, but at 2/1, I'm not banking on it. I'm going to split my bet between #4 PENWITH, who finally appears poised to take the next step in her career, and #6 BEST BEHAVIOR, who has finished in the Exacta in 11-of-16 starts at Gulfstream.
The Play: $15 Exacta Box #4 Penwith, #6 Best Behavior ($30 Wagered)
Barbara Fritchie Stakes, Grade 2, Laurel Park, 7 Furlongs
The oddsmaker has whittled this down to a two horse affair, with #3 HOT CITY GIRL and #5 LADY SABELIA sitting at 9/5 and 2/1, respectively, on the morning line. I prefer LADY SABELIA. The six-year-old daughter of Majestic Warrior is a win machine at Laurel, having taken 7-of-12 in her career, and she won this race last year with relative ease. She benefits from an advantageous draw outside of HOT CITY GIRL, which should allow Horacio Karamanos to stalk and pounce on that speedster when the time is right.
The Play: $5 Trifecta #5 Lady Sabelia / #3 Hot City Girl / #2 Clothes Fall Off, #4 Princess Violet, #6 Dancing House, #7 Wonder Gal ($20 Wagered)
Arcadia Stakes, Grade 2, Santa Anita, 1 Mile Turf
If this field stays together, and if #1 OM, #4 BIG CAZANOVA and #6 OBVIOUSLY all run, at least one of these frontrunners is going to be taken out of his game. All three of those horses want to race near the lead, and so much early zip could set this up for a horse that is able to draft in just behind them. That makes #7 PROSPECT PARK the horse I want to bet. He ran huge on the turf in the La Jolla Handicap last summer and comes off a freshening for Clifford Sise. If, and it's a big if, he's ready to run his best race off the pine, I think he'll mow them down late.
The Play: $10 Exacta #7 Prospect Park / #1 Om, #2 Cape Wolfe, #6 Obviously ($30 Wagered)
El Camino Real Derby, Grade 3, Golden Gate Fields, 1 1/8 Miles
I was ready to bet #12 FRANK CONVERSATION with both fists, but his outside draw is a huge disadvantage and I've become particularly enamored with Graham Motion's #2 KASSEOPIA. That one should benefit from an inside draw and had the misfortune of chasing a wire-to-wire winner through slow fractions in his only previous North American start in Woodbine's Grade 3 Grey Stakes. Motion wouldn't ship him cross-country if he wasn't expecting a big effort and Saturday's race shape should be more to his liking.
The Play: $5 Exacta #2 Kasseopia / #4 Mr. Coker, #5 Oscar Dominguez, #7 Marqula, #12 Frank Conversation ($20 Wagered)
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Team Paulick Handicapper: Scott Jagow, Editor-in-Chief
Sam F. Davis Stakes, Grade 3, Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 Miles
One of the new individual betting interests in this weekend's 2nd Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool is GETTYSBURG (5-2), and rightfully so based on his maiden-breaking victory last out. The Pioneerof the Nile colt looked professional going gate-to-wire in a field of 14, winning by 4 1/2 lengths at 1 1/8 miles. No one else in this field has gone that far yet. He'll likely need to show a rating gear with frontrunning sprinter MORNING FIRE (4-1) stepping up in distance, but I think he'll be just fine under Javier Castellano. Another horse that intrigues is RAFTING (7-2), a Tapit colt owned and bred by Wertheimer and Frere of Goldikova fame. Rafting's worktab suggests he's sitting on a big sophomore debut.
The Play: $15 exacta box, #2 Gettysburg, #5 Rafting ($30 total)
El Camino Real Derby
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's second-best 3-year-old, after Songbird, might just be MR. COKER (9-2). His debut in December, finishing second to Danzing Candy, was flattered when that colt drummed allowance foes by 5 3/4 in his next start. Mr. Coker was 10 3/4 lengths clear of third in his first start, then 1 1/2 in front when breaking his maiden next out. He's stepping up in distance and getting on synthetics for the first time, but I see no reason either should be an issue for the Candy Ride colt. KASSEOPIA makes his second North American start and his first for Team Valor and Graham Motion, who got the colt after his second in the Grey Stakes at Woodbine last October. Obvious danger in here. I prefer both over the field's 2-1 favorite FRANK CONVERSATION, who has a bad draw.
The Play: $20 to win, #4 Mr. Coker, $10 exacta box, Mr Coker/#2 Kasseopia ($40 total)
Tampa Bay Stakes, G3, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
This is definitely one of the weekend's most enticing betting races – field of 12, lukewarm favorite, lots of ways to go. I'll try a Dutch approach with a couple of 4-year-olds facing older. SOLEMN TRIBUTE (12-1) draws the outside post but he breaks well and should be able to outrun foes to sit a trip. Trainer Bryan Lynch has done a nice job turning this guy around, and if he's got one more gear of improvement, I think he can win this. A LOT (10-1) has rarely missed the board in a dozen starts, and perhaps Bill Mott's blinkers off move here will cure his case of second and third-itis. WAR CORRESPONDENT appears the class of the field.
The Play: $10 to win, #3 A Lot, #12 Solemn Tribute, $5 exactas, #1 War Correspondent/A Lot, Solemn Tribute ($30 total)
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